Durum market holding steady on prices

Although durum prices have come down slightly from their early summer peaks, they’ve been holding steady of late as harvest looms.

Looking at current prices, a lot of bids in the main durum areas are in the $6.50 to $6.60 range, which is down from earlier this summer, according to Jim Peterson, market director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“Where the pressure points are coming from was better harvest in the European Union and North African region against expected decline in world trade because of larger production (in those two regions), so that added some pressure to global prices,” he said.

Also, there was more durum planted this year in North Dakota because durum prices were at a premium to spring wheat. And even now, durum prices were still at about $1.50 premium vs. spring wheat values.

“We’ll see if that’s able to hold as we get into harvest,” he said. “Where the support is coming from is that June and early July were relatively hot and dry in Canada, especially in some of their main durum production areas. And similarly, here in Montana, just some pretty extended hot, dry periods, which has diminished crop prospects there.

“Now we’ve gotten recent rains in some of those areas (in Canada) as well as across Montana and North Dakota, so the question is … is it too late for some of the crop that had really suffered, or is it going to help boost kernel fill and the potential there? That’s where the market is right now. It seems to be in balance until we get closer to harvest or into harvest in both the U.S. and Canada and see what yields and quality will be like,” he added.

Looking at world dynamics, North African durum production is expected to increase this year. The latest estimates from the International Grains Council are for a 43 percent larger crop in Morocco compared to a year ago, an 18 percent larger crop in Tunisia, and a 14 percent larger crop in Algeria.

In Europe, Italy is looking at a 23 percent larger crop than a year ago, which puts their production at about 158 million bushels (MB).

And those regions, North Africa and Europe, either for quantity needs or quality shortfalls, are the major import regions for the world.

“So, with larger domestic crops (there), right now we’re already anticipating less demand. The only positive in all that is world ending inventories are still historically tight, and so that’s going to be supportive to the market,” he said.

Peterson also noted that food use of durum for pasta continues to grow and is projected at a seven-year high this year.

“Part of that is coming from India, but even in the North Africa region we’re seeing some stronger pasta demand, so that’s a positive,” he said.

The European and North African harvests are progressing and moving into some of the northern areas. They have gotten some rains in parts of France, and it’s also been trickling over into parts of Italy and Germany.

“Quality concerns are probably more so on the non-durum portion of the European wheat crop, but there could be a little bit of quality impact on the tail end of durum harvest in Europe,” he said.

Russia and Turkey have been the nemeses for world durum trade in recent years, more so two years ago than last year. But this year it looks like their competition in the world market will be tempered due to strong internal demand for grinding the durum in-country rather than exporting the durum. As a result, the U.S. is anticipating less export pressure from them.

North of the border, neighboring Canada did have higher planted area this year, but the yields are going to be subpar, according to Peterson, noting that an official estimate on that won’t come out until the end of August.

“Canada is kind of supporting the market a little right now because of two factors: one, they’re going into the 2025-26 marketing year, which started Aug. 1, with record low durum inventories, and that was due to a very robust 2024-25 export season,” he said. “Some projections have their ending inventories down to as low as 10-15 MB.

“The second factor is 2025 production concerns. A lot of their durum is grown in southern Saskatchewan and that’s been hot and dry up until recently,” he continued. “That area has gotten some recent rains, but the question is how much benefit will that be to the crops? Certainly, they’ll help with kernel fill, and help hold test weight, but that will probably have a marginal impact for yields because the hot, dry conditions have advanced the maturity of the crop a little and lowered crop ratings.

“The market has been surprised by those conditions in the past where late rains have actually helped the crop a little more than expected, but we’ll see,” he added.

In the U.S. market, there is still a vast difference in crop ratings between North Dakota and Montana. About 68 percent of the North Dakota durum crop is currently rated in good/excellent condition, and only 4 percent poor/very poor. And almost 60 percent of the crop is already turning color heading into the final stages of maturity.

On the other hand, in Montana only 1 percent of the crop is rated good, and 56 percent is rated poor/very poor. And only about 60 percent of their crop has reached heading stage.

“On one hand, maybe late rains could benefit some of the later developing crop, but the other is also indicative of just the stress the crop has been under all summer, it’s just not developing at its normal pace or condition,” he said, adding that the July yield estimate from USDA was 21 bushels per acre in Montana versus 47 bushels per acre in North Dakota.

“I think the North Dakota rating is too high. We’ve had some drier pockets, and parts of our durum region have gotten hit by some pretty intense storms including hail. We’ve also had a few days of hot temperatures. It’s just been a little more variable growing season, maybe a little more stress, and I think that 47 bushels per acre is overstated. But we won’t get an adjustment until later in August,” he said.

Lastly, crop condition ratings and weather will be market impact variables over the next few weeks. Disease pressure seems to be minimal to the crop, which is a positive, but this wet period, especially if it continues into harvest, then it’s going to start raising some quality concerns.

On the export front, current U.S. durum sales are roughly 5 MB, which is equal to last year. Italy is the largest buyer at 1.2 MB, followed by Mexico at 1 MB, and then South America, Central America, and the Caribbean region accounting for another 1.2 MB.

“It’s good to see the demand from Mexico, we were anticipating that. And the Italian demand is an unexpected plus, so hopefully we continue to see that demand on that front to help support the market as we head into the harvest period,” he concluded.