Chris Swift at Swift Trading Company said, “It will take the week to see what kind of swapping of horses took place last Friday. The open interest plummeted by over 17,000 contracts and it was no roll. No contract month picked up a fraction of what was lost in the August contract. My opinion alone is that the shorts were squeezed to their limits and the only way to pocket gains from the price advance was to sell. Barring one of the few black swan events, I believe this is one of the largest exodus of existing longs and existing shorts I have ever seen. Although I commented often on the amount of capital it would take to participate in today's price action, I had no clue it would be to this extent. Greater market share has been sought and believed acquired through deep pocket investors, able to pay more for feeder cattle than someone else in a time frame of starting in negative margins and a positive basis. Both are backwards to what most production schemes start with.
Fat futures are believed to have topped, again. This time for maybe a little longer than previously. With evidence of employment not having been nearly as strong as previously reported, and now some aspects that energy is losing steam, recession fears are believed equal to further stagflation or inflation. Bonds moving higher and energy lower is an aspect of recession. Do not forget that the reason President Trump wants lower rates is due to fear of a recession, for which lowering rates is acknowledgement of there being a problem.”
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