Sunflower market keeping tabs on world weather

The sunflower market is keeping a close watch on world weather, including in the Northern Plains where the crop is developing nicely thus far, but also in the Black Sea region where warm, dry conditions are cause for concern.

“Currently, weather conditions are mostly favorable for sunflower development in the Dakotas and Minnesota,” according to John Sandbakken, executive director of the National Sunflower Association (NSA), commenting in the July 28 NSA newsletter. “(However) traders are paying more attention to the Black Sea region as an extended period of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is a growing concern to sunflower production in the region.”

Those conditions, he noted, have stressed sunflower production in Ukraine and southern Russia, two of the largest regions of world sunflower production, and also parts of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Turkey.

Sandbakken also pointed out that Oil World estimated sunflower production for Russia at 19.4 million metric tons (MMT) and production in Ukraine at 14 MMT. “(But those estimates) may be too high given current growing conditions,” he said, adding that the publication out of Hamburg, Germany, also lowered production prospects in the European Union and Turkey from earlier estimates. “(Oil World also) notes that there is risk for more significant damage if much needed moisture is not received soon.”

As noted earlier, weather is an important factor in sunflower development, and July was a critical month for sunflowers in this region. Considering that and the factors in Europe and Russia, global sunflower production for 2025-26 was pegged at 60.3 MMT, according to estimates from Oil World. That compares to the latest estimate from USDA, which pegged world production at 56.3 MMT.

“The situation bears watching as Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets and prices will be responsive to potential production shortfalls,” he said, adding that the global seed stocks-to-use ratio is projected to show a slight increase based on current production estimates by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year from the previous year.

Old crop sunflower prices were unchanged to up 35 cents with new crop prices unchanged for the week ending July 26. As of July 29, Cargill in West Fargo, N.D., posted cash prices for high-oleic sunflower at $26.85 per hundredweight for delivery in August, and $25.15 for delivery in September. ADM in Enderlin, N.D., listed a cash price of $26.75 per hundredweight for delivery in August, and $25.20 in for September delivery. ADM in Pingree, N.D., listed NQ (No Quote) for August and September.

Sandbakken also pointed out that 2025 new crop sunflower prices at the crush plants are available at $21.50 to $22 cash, and $21 to $21.50 with an Act of God (AOG) clause. Enderlin listed a new contract cash price of $22, and $21.50 for a contract with an AOG clause. West Fargo listed a new crop cash price of $21.75. Pingree listed a new crop cash price of $21.50, and $21 for a contract with an AOG clause.